Research
The
research component of PoET features faculty-student panels of
technologists, social scientists, and humanists to identify
potential effects, highlight critical sources of uncertainty,
and evaluate limits of their knowledge. Panelists will combine
insights into directions of technological change, applications
of technologies, and implications for society, economy, security
and environment. The panels will critically examine past efforts
to anticipate effects of technological changes, then focus sequentially
on micro and nanotechnologies, ubiquitous computing, and genetic
engineering with a fourth technology to be selected.
PoET
PI Dan Hastings, MIT President Susan Hockfield,
PoET PI Dava Newman |
Working
Papers
The
Laser and its Implications: How Accurate Was Foresight in the
First Ten Years?
by Lawrence E. McCray
The
Metaphors of Emerging Technologies: Unpacking the disconnects
between the “what” and the “how” in
the world of “online shopping”
by Jason Black, Kieran Downes, Frank Field, Aleksandra Mozdzanowska,
and Katherine Steel
More Than
“Just Shopping:” personalization, privacy and the
(ab)use of data
by Jason Black, Kieran Downs, Frank Field, Aleksandra Mozdzanowska
War
Upon the Map: The Politics of Military User Innovation
by Jon R. Lindsay
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Retrospective
Cases
To
supplement the major research initiatives on ubiquitous computing
and biotechnology, the PoET program is conducting summary reviews
of three earlier technologies; the automobile, the laser, and
the global positioning system [GPS]. Professor
M. Roe Smith and students are examining early forecasts
of the impact of the automobile, Larry
McCray is reviewing early forecasts of the military and
civilian impacts of laser technology, and Daniel
Hastings is conducting a review of key decisions in the
design and deployment of GPS capabilities.
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Ubiquitous
Computing Research
PoET is participating in the CMI initiative (link) with the
University of Cambridge to assess the implications of ubiquitous
computing. As part of this research, PoET held a workshop in
the Fall of 2004 (link) and participated in the Oxford Internet
Institute’s symposium in the Spring of 2005 (link). There
are 2 research foci within this effort: location and personalization.
The location group, led by Dave Clark, is assessing the implications
of GPS, RFID and other technologies that will enable the knowledge
of where everyone and everything is at all times. The personalization
group, led by Frank Field, is investigating the development
of software agents that attempt to predict the preferences of
users and tailor their experiences accordingly. Dave Clark is
also leading an investigation into the implications of several
design choices surrounding the development of the next generation
internet.
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Biotechnology
Research
PoET kicked off its biotech research with a workshop in the
Fall of 2005 on the implications of personalized biotechnologies
(link). Building upon the discussions in the workshop, two primary
research foci have emerged: bio-security and Certification.
The bio-security group, led by Dan Hastings, is investigating
issues of information control; prevention, detection, and response;
and global access to emerging bio technologies. The certification
group is concerned with methods for testing and clinical trails
for personalized pharmaceuticals; intellectual property rights;
therapeutic treatments versus enhancements, and the evolution
of health insurance as genetic markers and information become
widespread.
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Uncertainty
and Decision Making
PoET research in uncertainty and decision making is currently
focused on the development of methods and policies for facilitating
adaptation in both public and private policy. The adaptation
research involves several case studies of policy successes and
failures due to adaptation or the lack thereof. The group, led
by Larry McCray, Ken Oye, and Dava Newman, is developing a framework
for recommending the type and level of adaptation that is appropriate
for various types of uncertainty.
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Energy
Research
The PoET energy group, led by Ken Oye and Jason Black, is assessing
the cultural, political and economic factors that have inhibited
or facilitated the application of emerging technologies to energy
problems. The research is first focusing on past examples of
emerging energy technologies, both successes and failures. The
lessons learned from past experiences will be applied to current
emerging energy technologies in order to determine potential
critical barriers, such as political backlash, concentrated
interests, or misallocation of risk.
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